At a predicted 89.925m m³, there is unlikely to be any great change against previous year in the produced sawn-softwood volume in the countries represented in the European Organization of the Sawmill Industry (EOS) in the current year.
According to the data released by 13 member and associated countries in the 2021/2022 EOS year report, the increase achieved in the previous years looks set to come to halt in 2022. In 2021, production had grown significantly more sharply than originally expected at 4.4%; the forecast made last year at the general meeting in Helsinki had been expecting growth of 2.9%.
After positive business in the most of producer countries in the first several months of current year and, in some cases, a markedly higher output than previous year, the prospects for the second half of 2022 have meanwhile become appreciably darker. Price increases and material shortages have resulted in a slowing pace of business activity in lots of countries. Customers’ hesitation about the business prospects has already been reflected in weaker demand for sawn coniferous and value-added wood products since June as well as greatly decreasing selling prices recently.
In the middle of 2022, the EU sanctions against wood imports from Russia and Belarus have not created any shortages on the western European sawn-softwood markets. The volumes under contracts signed before the sanctions were introduced have mainly been delivered. In light of the levelling off in construction activity and a forecasted lower demand for wooden packaging and pallets, it remains to be seen to what extent the lack of imports from Russia and Belarus from the third quarter onwards will lead to a growth in demand from alternative suppliers from the ranks of the EOS member states.
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